$特斯拉.US 主要看空理由有 3 点:

1 特斯拉取消 model2 的决策导致保有量增长失速,其中主要因为降本难度大,4680 电池难产等因素,短期内无法提振资本最大的期待;

2 对于自动驾驶时间表及产生业绩大幅增长的预期过于激进,忽视了现有法规无法适应全自动驾驶和一旦 fsd 犯错导致的巨大风险,且现有市场规模对于 fsd 订阅来说总量有限;

3 财报季前对于销量悲观情绪,Q1 采取了逼单策略,显然后续销量不及预期,中国市场极度内卷,没有新车则逐渐销量下滑,都是可以预见的。

目前仍旧偏向震荡向下,短期内难以看到反转,robotaxi 也救不了,毕竟市值也有三万多亿人民币啊。特斯拉属于要么死,要么成仙,心脏顶不住。

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