特斯拉 2024 年第一季度财报电话问答记录
投资多看第一手不加工信息
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
A - Martin Viecha A - 马丁·维查
Okay. Let's start with investor Q&A. The first question is, what is the status of 4680. What is the current output? Lars?
好。让我们从投资者问答开始。第一个问题是，4680的状态如何。电流输出是多少？拉斯？
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Sure. 4680 production increased about 18% to 20% from Q4 reaching greater than 1K a week for Cybertruck, which is about 7 gigawatt hours per year as we posted on X. We expect to stay ahead of the Cybertruck ramp with the cell production throughout Q2 as we ramp the third of four lines in Phase 1, while maintaining multiple weeks of cell inventory to make sure we're ahead of the ramp. Because we're ramping, COGS continues to drop rapidly week-over-week driven by yield improvements throughout the lines and production volume increases. So our goal, and we expect to do this is to beat supplier cost of nickel-based cells by the end of the year.
确定。4680 的产量比第四季度增长了约 18% 至 20%，Cybertruck 的每周产量超过 1K，正如我们在 X 上发布的那样，每年约为 7 吉瓦时。我们预计在整个第二季度，随着我们在第一阶段增加四条生产线中的第三条，电池产量将保持领先于Cybertruck的爬坡，同时保持数周的电池库存，以确保我们领先于爬坡。由于我们正在增加产量，由于整条生产线的产量提高和产量增加，COGS 继续逐周快速下降。因此，我们的目标是在今年年底前击败镍基电池的供应商成本。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. The second question is on Optimus. So what is the current status of Optimus? Are they currently performing any factory tasks? When do you expect to start mass production?
谢谢。第二个问题是关于擎天柱的。那么擎天柱的现状如何呢？他们目前正在执行任何工厂任务吗？您预计何时开始量产？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
We are able to do simple factory tasks or at least, I should say, factory tasks in the lab. In terms of – we do think we will have Optimus in limited production in the natural factory itself, doing useful tasks before the end of this year. And then I think we may be able to sell it externally by the end of next year. These are just guesses.
我们能够完成简单的工厂任务，或者至少，我应该说，在实验室中完成工厂任务。就此而言，我们确实认为我们将在自然工厂本身进行有限的生产，在今年年底之前完成有用的任务。然后我认为我们可能会在明年年底之前将其出售给外部。这些只是猜测。
As I've said before, I think Optimus will be more valuable than everything else combined. Because if you've got a sentient humanoid robots that is able to navigate reality and do tasks at request, there is no meaningful limit to the size of the economy. So that's what is going to happen. And I think Tesla is best positioned of any humanoid robot maker to be able to reach volume production with efficient inference on the robot itself.
正如我之前所说，我认为擎天柱将比其他所有东西加起来更有价值。因为如果你有一个有知觉的人形机器人，能够驾驭现实并根据要求执行任务，那么经济规模就没有有意义的限制。所以这就是将要发生的事情。我认为特斯拉是所有人形机器人制造商中最好的定位，能够通过对机器人本身的有效推理来实现批量生产。
I mean this perhaps is a point that is worth emphasizing Tesla's AI inference efficiency is vastly better than any other company. There is no company even close to the inference efficiency of Tesla. We've had to do that because we were constrained by the inference hardware in the car, we didn't have a choice. But that will pay dividends in many ways.
我的意思是，这也许是值得强调的一点：特斯拉的人工智能推理效率远远优于任何其他公司。没有一家公司的推理效率能与特斯拉相提并论。我们不得不这样做，因为我们受到汽车推理硬件的限制，我们别无选择。但这将在许多方面带来红利。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. The third question is, what is the current assessment of the pathway towards regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the U.S. And how should we think about the appropriate safety threshold compared to human drivers?
谢谢。第三个问题是，目前对美国无监督FSD获得监管批准的途径的评估是什么？与人类驾驶员相比，我们应该如何考虑适当的安全阈值？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Sure. 确定。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
I can start. There are a handful of states that already have adopted autonomous vehicle laws. These states are paving the way for operations, while the data for such operations guides a broader adoption of driver-less vehicles. I think Ashok can talk a little bit about our safety methodology, but we expect that these states and the work ongoing as well as the data that we're providing will pave a way for a broad-based regulatory approval in the U.S. at least and then in other countries as well?
我可以开始了。有少数几个州已经通过了自动驾驶汽车法律。这些州正在为运营铺平道路，而此类运营的数据则指导更广泛地采用无人驾驶汽车。我认为 Ashok 可以谈谈我们的安全方法，但我们希望这些州和正在进行的工作以及我们提供的数据至少为美国和其他国家/地区的广泛监管批准铺平道路？
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. It's actually been pretty helpful that other autonomous car companies have been cutting a path through the regulatory jungle, which is absurd. That's actually quite helpful. And they have obviously been operating in San Francisco for a while. I think they got approval for City of LA. So these approvals are happening rapidly. I think if you've got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has, let's say, half the accident rate of a human-driven car, I think, that's difficult to ignore because at that point, stopping autonomy means killing people.
是的。实际上，其他自动驾驶汽车公司一直在监管丛林中开辟一条道路，这是非常有用的，这是荒谬的。这实际上很有帮助。他们显然已经在旧金山经营了一段时间。我认为他们获得了洛杉矶市的批准。因此，这些批准正在迅速进行。我认为，如果你有大规模的统计学上显着的数据，最终表明自动驾驶汽车的事故率是人类驾驶汽车的一半，我认为，这是很难忽视的，因为在这一点上，停止自动驾驶意味着杀人。
So I actually do not think that there will be significant regulatory barriers provided there was conclusive data that the autonomous car is safer than a human-driven car. And in my view, this will be much like elevators. Elevators used to be operated by a guy with relay switch. But sometimes that guy would get tired or drunk or just make a mistake, and shatter somebody in half between floors. So we just get an elevator and press button, we don't think about it. In fact, it's kind of weird if somebody is standing there with a relay switch.
因此，我实际上不认为会有重大的监管障碍，只要有确凿的数据表明自动驾驶汽车比人类驾驶的汽车更安全。在我看来，这很像电梯。电梯曾经由一个带继电器开关的人操作。但有时那个人会累了或喝醉了，或者只是犯了一个错误，把某人在楼层之间打成两半。所以我们只是得到一个电梯并按下按钮，我们不去想它。事实上，如果有人拿着继电器开关站在那里，那就有点奇怪了。
And that will be how cars work. You just summon the car using your phone, you get in, it takes you to a destination, you get out.
这就是汽车的工作方式。你只需用手机召唤汽车，你上车，它带你到目的地，你下车。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
You don't even think about it?
你连想都没想过？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
You don't even think about it. Just like an elevator, it takes you to your floor. That's it. Don't think about how the elevator is working or anything like that. And something I should clarify is that Tesla will be operating the fleet. So you can think of like how Tesla, think of it’s like some combination of Airbnb and Uber, meaning that there will be some number of cars that Tesla owns itself and operates in the fleet. There will be some number of cars and then there'll be a bunch of cars where they're owned by the end user. That end user can add or subtract their car to the fleet whenever they want, and they can decide if they want to only let the car be used by friends and family or only by 5-star users or by anyone at any time they could have the car come back to them and be exclusively theirs, like an Airbnb.
你甚至不去想它。就像电梯一样，它会带您到您的楼层。就是这样。不要考虑电梯是如何工作的或类似的事情。我应该澄清的是，特斯拉将运营车队。所以你可以像特斯拉一样，把它想象成Airbnb和Uber的某种组合，这意味着特斯拉将拥有一定数量的汽车，并在车队中运营。会有一定数量的汽车，然后会有一堆汽车归最终用户所有。最终用户可以随时将他们的汽车添加到或减少车队中，他们可以决定是否只想让朋友和家人使用汽车，或者只让 5 星级用户或任何人使用，他们可以随时让汽车归还给他们并完全属于他们， 就像Airbnb一样。
You could rent out your guest room or not, any time you want. So as our fleet grows, we have 7 million cars going to – 9 million cars going to, eventually tens of millions of cars worldwide. With a constant feedback loop, every time something goes wrong, that gets added to the training data and you get this training flywheel happening in the same way that Google Search has the sort of flywheel, it's very difficult to compete with Google because people are constantly doing searches and clicking and Google is getting that feedback loop.
您可以随时出租客房。因此，随着我们车队的壮大，我们有 700 万辆汽车将进入 - 900 万辆汽车将进入全球，最终将达到数千万辆汽车。通过一个持续的反馈循环，每当出现问题时，都会将其添加到训练数据中，并且您会以与Google搜索相同的方式进行训练飞轮，因此很难与Google竞争，因为人们不断地进行搜索和点击，而Google正在获得反馈循环。
It’s the same with Tesla. But at a scale that is maybe difficult to comprehend, but ultimately, it will be tens of millions. I think there's also some potential here for an AWS element down the road where if we've got very powerful inference because we've got a Hardware 3 in the cars, but now all cars are being made with Hardware 4. Hardware 5 is pretty much designed and should be in cars, hopefully towards the end of next year. And there's a potential to run – when the car is not moving to actually run distributed inference. So kind of like AWS, but distributed inference. Like it takes a lot of computers to train an AI model, but many orders of magnitude less compute to run it.
特斯拉也是如此。但规模可能难以理解，但最终将达到数千万。我认为这里也有一些AWS元素的潜力，如果我们有非常强大的推理，因为我们在汽车中有一个硬件3，但现在所有的汽车都是用硬件4制造的。硬件 5 的设计差不多了，应该会出现在汽车上，希望在明年年底。而且有可能运行——当汽车没有移动时，实际运行分布式推理。所以有点像AWS，但分布式推理。就像训练一个人工智能模型需要很多计算机，但运行它的计算量却要少很多个数量级。
So if you can imagine future, perhaps where there's a fleet of 100 million Teslas, and on average, they've got like maybe a kilowatt of inference compute. That's 100 gigawatts of inference compute distributed all around the world. It's pretty hard to put together 100 gigawatts of AI compute. And even in an autonomous future where the car is, perhaps, used instead of being used 10 hours a week, it is used 50 hours a week. That still leaves over 100 hours a week where the car inference computer could be doing something else. And it seems like it will be a waste not to use it.
所以，如果你能想象未来，也许有1亿辆特斯拉的车队，平均而言，他们可能有一千瓦的推理计算能力。这是分布在世界各地的 100 GB 推理计算。将 100 吉瓦的 AI 计算放在一起是相当困难的。即使在自动驾驶的未来，汽车可能被使用而不是每周使用10小时，而是每周使用50小时。这仍然使汽车推理计算机每周有100多个小时可以做其他事情。而且似乎不使用它将是一种浪费。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Ashok, do you want to chime in on the air process and safety?
Ashok，你想谈谈空气过程和安全吗？
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes, we have multiple tiers of validating the safety in any given week, we train hundreds of neural networks that can produce different trajectories for how to drive the car, we replay them through the millions of clips that we have already collected from our users and our own QA. Those are like critical events, like someone jumping out in front or like other critical events that we have gathered database over many, many years, and we replay through all of them to make sure that we are net improving safety. And on top of it, we have simulation systems that also try to recreate this and test this in closed loop fashion. And some of this is validated, we give it to our own QA drivers. We have hundreds of them in different cities, in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, New York, a lot of different locations.
是的，我们在任何给定的一周内都有多个层次的安全性验证，我们训练了数百个神经网络，这些神经网络可以为如何驾驶汽车产生不同的轨迹，我们通过我们已经从用户和我们自己的QA那里收集的数百万个剪辑来重播它们。这些就像关键事件，比如有人跳到前面，或者像我们多年来收集数据库的其他关键事件，我们重播所有这些事件，以确保我们正在提高安全性。最重要的是，我们的仿真系统也试图以闭环方式重现并对其进行测试。其中一些是经过验证的，我们将其提供给我们自己的 QA 驱动程序。我们在不同的城市有数百个这样的公司，在旧金山、洛杉矶、奥斯汀、纽约，以及许多不同的地方。
They are also driving this and collecting real-world miles, and we have an estimate of what are the critical events, are they a net improvement compared to the previous week’s builds. And once we have confidence that the build is a net improvement, then we start shipping to early users, like 2,000 employees initially that they would like it to build, they will give feedback on like if it's an improvement there or they're noting some new issues that we did not capture in our own QA process. And only after all of this is validated, then we go to external customers.
他们也在推动这个并收集真实世界的里程，我们估计了什么是关键事件，与前一周的构建相比，它们是否是净改进。一旦我们确信构建是一个净改进，那么我们就会开始向早期用户发布，比如最初希望构建的 2,000 名员工，他们会提供反馈，比如它是否是改进，或者他们注意到一些我们在自己的 QA 流程中没有发现的新问题。只有在所有这些都得到验证之后，我们才会去找外部客户。
And even when we go external, we have like live dashboards of monitoring every critical event that's happening in the fleet sorted by the criticality of it. So we are having a constant pulse on the build quality and the safety improvement along the way. And then any failures like Elon alluded to, we get the data back, add it to the training and that improves the model in the next cycle. So we have this like constant feedback loop of issues, fixes, evaluations and then rinse and repeat. And especially with the new V12 architecture, all of this is automatically improving without requiring much engineering interventions in the sense that engineers don't have to be creative in like how they code the algorithms. It's mostly learning on its own based on data.
即使我们去外部，我们也有实时仪表板，可以监控车队中发生的每个关键事件，并按其重要性排序。因此，我们一直在关注制造质量和安全性改进。然后，像 Elon 提到的任何失败，我们都会取回数据，将其添加到训练中，从而在下一个周期中改进模型。因此，我们有一个持续的反馈循环，包括问题、修复、评估，然后冲洗和重复。特别是使用新的 V12 架构，所有这些都会自动改进，而无需太多的工程干预，因为工程师不必像他们编写算法那样具有创造力。它主要是根据数据自行学习。
So you see that, okay, every failure or like this is how a person shows, this is how you drive this intersection or something like that, they get the data back. We add it to the neural network, and it learns from that trained data automatically instead of some engineers saying that, oh, here, you must rotate the steering wheel by this much or something like that. There's no hard inference conditions, it's everything is neural network, it's very soft, it's probabilistic. So it will adapt its probability distribution based on the new data that it's getting.
所以你会看到，好吧，每一次失败或类似的事情都是一个人的表现，这就是你如何驾驶这个十字路口或类似的东西，他们会得到数据。我们把它添加到神经网络中，它会自动从训练过的数据中学习，而不是一些工程师说，哦，在这里，你必须把方向盘旋转这么多或类似的东西。没有硬推理条件，一切都是神经网络，它非常软，它是概率的。因此，它将根据获得的新数据调整其概率分布。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. We do have some insight into how good the things will be in like, let's say, three or four months because we have advanced models that are far more capable than what is in the car, but have some issues with them that we need to fix. So they are like there'll be a step change improvement in the capabilities of the car, but it will have some quirks that are – that need to be addressed in order to release it.
是的。我们确实对三四个月后的情况有一些了解，因为我们拥有先进的模型，这些模型比汽车中的模型功能强大得多，但有一些问题需要我们解决。因此，他们就像汽车的功能将有一个阶梯式的变化改进，但它会有一些怪癖——需要解决才能发布它。
As Ashok was saying, we have to be very careful in what we release the fleet or to customers in general. So like – if we look at say 12.4 and 12.5, which are really could arguably even be Version 13, Version 14 because it's pretty close to a total retrain of the neural nets in each case are substantially different. So we have good insight into where the model is, how well the car will perform, in, say, three or four months.
正如 Ashok 所说，我们必须非常小心地释放车队或向一般客户发布什么。因此，如果我们看一下 12.4 和 12.5，它们实际上甚至可以说是 13 版、14 版，因为它非常接近于神经网络的完全重新训练，在每种情况下都有很大的不同。因此，我们可以很好地了解模型的位置，汽车在三到四个月内的表现如何。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. In terms of scaling laws, people in the AI community generally talk about model scaling laws where they increase the model size a lot and then their corresponding gains in performance, but we have also figured out scaling laws and other access in addition to the model side scaling, making also data scaling. You can increase the amount of data you use to train the neural network and that also gives similar gains and you can also scale up by training compute, you can train it for much longer or make more GPUs or more Dojo nodes and that also gives better performance, and you can also have architecture scaling where you count with better architectures that for the same amount of compute for produce better results. So a combination of model size scaling, data scaling, training compute scaling and the architecture scaling, we can basically extract like, okay, with the continue scaling based on this – at this ratio, we can sort of predict future performance.
是的。在缩放定律方面，AI 社区的人们通常谈论模型缩放定律，他们大量增加模型大小，然后相应地提高性能，但除了模型侧缩放之外，我们还想出了缩放定律和其他访问，也使数据缩放。你可以增加你用来训练神经网络的数据量，这也提供了类似的收益，你也可以通过训练计算来扩大规模，你可以训练它更长的时间，或者制作更多的GPU或更多的Dojo节点，这也提供了更好的性能，你也可以进行架构扩展，你可以用更好的架构来计算，对于相同的计算量，可以产生更好的结果。因此，结合模型大小扩展、数据扩展、训练计算扩展和架构扩展，我们基本上可以提取，好吧，基于此的持续扩展——在这个比率下，我们可以预测未来的性能。
Obviously, it takes time to do the experiments because it takes a few weeks to train, it takes a few weeks to collect tens of millions of video clips and process all of them, but you can estimate what’s going to be the future progress based on the trends that we have seen in the past, and they’re generally held true based on past data.
显然，做实验需要时间，因为训练需要几周时间，收集数千万个视频剪辑并处理所有视频剪辑需要几周时间，但你可以根据我们过去看到的趋势来估计未来的进展。 根据过去的数据，它们通常是正确的。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you very much. I’ll go to the next question, which is, can we get an official announcement of the time line for the $25,000 vehicle?
好。谢谢。我将进入下一个问题，即，我们能否正式宣布 25,000 美元车辆的时间表？
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
I think we – Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks. But as you mentioned, we’re updating our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of our low-cost vehicles in a more CapEx efficient way. That’s our mission to get the most affordable cars to customers as fast as possible. These new vehicles we built on our existing lines and open capacity, and that’s a major shift to utilize all our capacity with marginal CapEx before we go spend high CapEx to do anything.
我想我们——埃隆在开场白中提到了这一点。但正如你所提到的，我们正在更新我们未来的车辆阵容，以更高效的资本支出方式加速我们低成本车辆的推出。这就是我们的使命，即尽快将最实惠的汽车送到客户手中。这些新车是我们在现有生产线和开放产能的基础上建造的，这是一个重大转变，在我们花费高资本支出做任何事情之前，利用我们所有的产能和边际资本支出。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. We’ll talk about this more on August 8. But really, the way to think of Tesla is almost entirely in terms of solving autonomy and being able to turn on that autonomy for a gigantic fleet. And I think it might be the biggest asset value appreciation history when that day happens when you can do unsupervised full self-driving.
是的。我们将在 8 月 8 日对此进行更多讨论。但实际上，对特斯拉的看法几乎完全是解决自主性问题，并能够为庞大的车队开启这种自主性。我认为，当那一天到来时，这可能是最大的资产价值升值历史，届时你可以进行无人监督的全自动驾驶。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
5 million cars? 500万辆汽车？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
A little less? 少一点？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. It will be 7 million cars in a year or so and then 10 million and then eventually, we’re talking about tens of millions of cars. Not eventually, it’s like, yes, for the end of the decade, its several tens of millions of cars I think.
是的。在一年左右的时间里，这将是700万辆汽车，然后是1000万辆，最后，我们谈论的是数千万辆汽车。最终不会，就像，是的，在本世纪末，我认为它有几千万辆汽车。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. The next question is, what is the progress of Cybertruck ramp?
谢谢。接下来的问题是，Cybertruck坡道的进展如何？
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
I can take that one too. Cybertruck had 1K a week just a couple of weeks ago. This happened in the first four to five months since we SOP [ph] late last year. Of course, volume production is what matters. That’s what drives costs and so our costs are dropping, but the ramp still faces like a lot of challenges with so many new technologies, some supplier limitations, et cetera, and continue to ramp this year, just focusing on cost efficiency and quality.
我也可以接受那个。就在几周前，Cybertruck 每周有 1K。这发生在去年年底我们SOP [ph]以来的前四到五个月。当然，批量生产才是最重要的。这就是推动成本的原因，因此我们的成本正在下降，但爬坡仍然面临着许多新技术、一些供应商限制等挑战，并且今年继续爬坡，只关注成本效益和质量。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you. The next question, have any of the legacy automakers contacted Tesla about possibly licensing FSD in the future?
好。谢谢。下一个问题，是否有任何传统汽车制造商联系过特斯拉，希望将来可能获得FSD的许可？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
We’re in conversations with one major automaker regarding licensing FSD.
我们正在与一家主要汽车制造商就FSD的许可进行对话。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. The next question is about the robotaxi unveil. Elon already talked about that. So we’ll have to wait till August. The following question is about the next-generation vehicle. We already talked about that. So let’s go to the semi. What is the time line for scaling semi?
谢谢。下一个问题是关于自动驾驶出租车的揭幕。埃隆已经谈到了这一点。所以我们必须等到八月。以下问题是关于下一代汽车的。我们已经讨论过了。所以让我们去半决赛。扩展半导体的时间表是什么？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
I think… 我认为。。。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
So we’re finalizing the engineering of the semi to enable like a super cost-effective high-volume production with our learnings from our fleet and our pilot fleet and Pepsi’s fleet, which we are expanding this year marginally. In parallel, as we showed in the shareholders’ deck, we have started construction on the factory in Reno. Our first vehicles are planned for late 2025 with external customers starting in 2026.
因此，我们正在完成半成品的工程设计，以便通过我们从我们的机队、我们的试点机队和百事可乐机队中学到的知识，实现超高性价比的大批量生产，我们今年将略微扩大。与此同时，正如我们在股东大会上所展示的那样，我们已经开始在里诺的工厂建设。我们的首批车辆计划于 2025 年底推出，外部客户将于 2026 年开始。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. A couple more questions. So our favorite, can we make FSD transfer permanent until FSD is fully delivered with Level 5 autonomy?
好。还有几个问题。因此，我们最喜欢的是，在FSD完全交付5级自主性之前，我们是否可以使FSD永久转移？
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Yes. 是的。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Next question, what is the getting the production ramp at Lathrop, where do you see the Megapack run rate at the end of the year. Mike?
好。下一个问题，Lathrop 的产量提升情况如何，您如何看待年底的 Megapack 运行率。话筒？
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
Yes. Yes, Lathrop is ramping as planned. We have our second GA line allowing us to increase our exit rate from 20 gigawatt hours per year to – at the start of this year to 40 gigawatt hours per year by the end of the year, that lines commissioned. There’s really nothing limiting the ramp. Its given the longer sales cycles for these large projects, we typically have order visibility 12 months to 24 months prior to ship dates. So we’re able to plan – the build plan several quarters in advance. So this allows us to ramp the factory to align with the business and order growth. Lastly, we’d like to thank our customers globally for their trust in Tesla as a partner for these incredible projects.
是的。是的，Lathrop 正在按计划进行。我们有第二条GA线路，使我们能够将退出率从每年20吉瓦时提高到今年年初的每年40吉瓦时，到今年年底，该线路已投入使用。真的没有什么限制坡道。鉴于这些大型项目的销售周期较长，我们通常在发货日期前 12 个月到 24 个月获得订单可见性。因此，我们能够提前几个季度进行计划。因此，这使我们能够扩大工厂规模，使其与业务和订单增长保持一致。最后，我们要感谢全球客户对特斯拉作为这些精彩项目的合作伙伴的信任。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you very much. Let’s go to analyst questions. The first question comes from Tony Sacconaghi from Bernstein. Tony, please go ahead and unmute.
好。谢谢。让我们来看看分析师的问题。第一个问题来自伯恩斯坦的托尼·萨科纳吉（Tony Sacconaghi）。托尼，请继续取消静音。
Tony Sacconaghi 托尼·萨科纳吉
Thank you for taking the question. I was just wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more on kind of the new vehicles that you talked about today. Are these like tweaks on existing models, given that they’re going to be running on the same lines? Are these like new models? And how should we think about them in the context of like the Model 3 Highland update, what will these models be like relative to that? And given the quick time frame, Model 3 Highland has required a lot of work and a lot of retooling. Maybe you can help put that all in context. Thank you, and I have a follow-up, please.
感谢您回答这个问题。我只是想知道你是否可以更详细地介绍一下你今天谈到的新车。这些是否像是对现有模型的调整，因为它们将在同一条线上运行？这些像新模型吗？在像 Model 3 Highland 更新这样的背景下，我们应该如何看待它们，这些模型相对于它会是什么样子？考虑到时间紧迫，Model 3 Highland需要大量的工作和大量的重组。也许你可以帮助把这一切放在上下文中。谢谢你，我有一个后续，拜托。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
I think we've said, we were on that front. So what’s your follow-up?
我想我们已经说过，我们在这方面。那么你的后续行动是什么？
Tony Sacconaghi 托尼·萨科纳吉
It’s a more personal one for you, Elon, which is that you’re leading many important companies right now. Maybe you can just talk about where your heart is at in terms of your interests and do you expect to lessen your involvement with Tesla at any point over the next three years?
对你来说，这是一个更个人化的问题，Elon，你现在正在领导许多重要的公司。也许你可以谈谈你的兴趣所在，你是否希望在未来三年的任何时候减少你对特斯拉的参与？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Tesla constitutes a majority of my work time and I work pretty much every day of the week. It’s rare for me to take a Sunday afternoon. So I’m going to make sure Tesla is quite prosperous. And it is – like it is prosperous and it will be very much so in the future.
特斯拉占据了我大部分的工作时间，我几乎一周中的每一天都在工作。我很少在周日下午休息。所以我要确保特斯拉相当繁荣。它确实如此——就像它很繁荣一样，将来也会如此。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you. Let’s go to Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Adam, please go ahead and unmute.
好。谢谢。让我们来看看摩根士丹利的亚当·乔纳斯。亚当，请继续取消静音。
Adam Jonas 亚当·乔纳斯
Okay. Great. Hey, Elon. So you and your team on volume expect a 2024 growth rate, notably lower than that achieved in 2023. But what's your team's degree of confidence on growth above 0%? Or in other words, does that statement leave room for potentially lower sales year-on-year?
好。伟大。嘿，埃隆。因此，您和您的团队预计 2024 年的增长率将明显低于 2023 年的增长率。但是，您的团队对增长高于 0% 的信心程度如何？或者换句话说，这种说法是否为潜在的同比销售额下降留下了空间？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
No, I think we'll have higher sales this year than last year.
不，我认为我们今年的销售额会比去年高。
Adam Jonas 亚当·乔纳斯
Okay. My follow-up, Elon, on future product. If you had nailed execution, assuming that you nail execution on your next-gen cheaper vehicles, more aggressive giga castings, I don't want to say one piece, but getting closer to one piece, structural pack, unboxed, 300-mile range, $25,000 price point, putting aside robotaxi, those features unique to you. How long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy a cheaper and better vehicle that you could offer a couple of years from now? How long would it take your best Chinese competitors to copy that? Thanks.
好。我的后续，埃隆，关于未来的产品。如果你已经确定了执行力，假设你在下一代更便宜的车辆上钉住了执行力，更激进的千兆铸件，我不想说一件，但越来越接近一件，结构包，无包装，300 英里的续航里程，25,000 美元的价格点，撇开机器人出租车，这些功能是你独有的。你最好的中国竞争对手需要多长时间才能复制出一辆更便宜、更好的汽车，而你可以在几年后提供？你们最好的中国竞争对手需要多长时间才能复制它？谢谢。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
I mean, I don't know what our competitors could do, except we've done relatively better than they have. If you look at the drop in our competitors in China sales versus our drop in sales, our drop was less than theirs. So we're doing well. But I think Cathy Wood said it best, like really, we should be thought of as an AI or robotics company. If you value Tesla as just like an auto company, you just have to – fundamentally, it's just the wrong framework and it will come to be.
我的意思是，我不知道我们的竞争对手能做什么，除非我们做得比他们好。如果你看看我们在中国的竞争对手的销售额下降和我们的销售额下降，我们的下降幅度小于他们的下降幅度。所以我们做得很好。但我认为凯茜·伍德（Cathy Wood）说得最好，就像真的，我们应该被认为是一家人工智能或机器人公司。如果你把特斯拉看作一家汽车公司，你只需要——从根本上说，这只是一个错误的框架，它就会成为现实。
If you ask the wrong question, then the right answer is impossible. So I mean, if somebody doesn't believe Tesla is going to solve autonomy, I think they should not be an investor in the company. Like, that is – but we will and we are. And then you have a car that goes from 10 hours of use a week, like 1.5 hours a day to probably 50%, but it costs the same.
如果你问错了问题，那么正确的答案是不可能的。所以我的意思是，如果有人不相信特斯拉会解决自动驾驶问题，我认为他们不应该成为该公司的投资者。就像，那是——但我们会，我们是。然后你有一辆汽车，从每周使用10个小时，比如每天1.5个小时到50%，但它的成本是一样的。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
I think that's the key thing to remember, right, especially if you look at FSD Supervised, if you didn't believe in autonomy, this should give you a review that this is coming. It's actually getting better day by day.
我认为这是要记住的关键，对吧，特别是如果你看一下 FSD 监督，如果你不相信自治，这应该会让你对即将到来的情况进行审查。实际上，它每天都在变得更好。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. If you've not tried the FSD 12.3, and like I said, 12.4 is going to be significantly better and 12.5 even better than that. And we have visibility into those things. Then you really don't understand what's going on. It's not possible.
是的。如果您还没有尝试过 FSD 12.3，就像我说的，12.4 会好得多，12.5 甚至比这更好。我们可以看到这些事情。然后你真的不明白发生了什么。这是不可能的。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. And that's why we can't just look at just as a car company because a car company would just have a car. But here, we have more than a car company because the cars can be autonomous. And like I said, it's happening.
是的。这就是为什么我们不能只看一家汽车公司，因为一家汽车公司只会有一辆车。但在这里，我们不仅仅是一家汽车公司，因为汽车可以是自动驾驶的。就像我说的，它正在发生。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. This is all in addition to Tesla – the overall AI community is just like increasing – like, improving rapidly.
是的。这都是对特斯拉的补充——整个人工智能社区就像在增加一样——就像在迅速提高一样。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. I mean we're putting the actual auto in automobile. So sort of – we go like, well, sort of like tell us about future horse carriages you're making. I'm like, well, actually, it doesn't need a horse that's the whole point. That's really the whole point.
是的。我的意思是，我们把真正的汽车放在汽车里。所以，我们就像，嗯，有点像告诉我们你正在制造的未来马车。我想，好吧，实际上，它不需要一匹马，这才是重点。这才是真正的重点。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay, thank you. The next question comes from Alex Potter from Piper Sandler. Alex, please go ahead and unmute.
好的，谢谢。下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的Alex Potter。亚历克斯，请继续取消静音。
Alex Potter 亚历克斯·波特
Great, thanks. Yes, so I couldn't agree more. The thesis hinges completely on AI, the future of AI, full self-driving neural net training, all of these things. In that context, Elon, you've spoken about your desire to obtain 25% voting control of the company. And I understand completely why that would be. So I'm not necessarily asking about that. I'm asking if you've come up with any mechanism by which you can ensure that you'll obtain that level of voting control. Because if not, then the core part of the thesis could potentially be at risk. So any additional commentary you might have on that topic.
太好了，谢谢。是的，所以我完全同意。这篇论文完全取决于人工智能、人工智能的未来、全自动驾驶神经网络训练，以及所有这些东西。在这种情况下，埃隆，你谈到了你希望获得公司25%的投票权。我完全理解为什么会这样。所以我不一定要问这个。我问你有没有想出任何机制来确保你获得这种程度的投票控制权。因为如果没有，那么论文的核心部分可能会面临风险。因此，您可能对该主题有任何其他评论。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Well, I think no matter what Tesla, even if I got kidnapped by aliens tomorrow, Tesla will solve autonomy, maybe a little slower, but it would solve autonomy for vehicles at least. I don't know if it would winon with respect to Optimus or with respect to future products, but it would that there's enough momentum for Tesla to solve autonomy even if I disappeared for vehicles.
好吧，我认为不管特斯拉是什么，即使我明天被外星人绑架，特斯拉也会解决自动驾驶问题，也许会慢一点，但至少会解决汽车的自动驾驶问题。我不知道它是否会在Optimus或未来的产品方面获胜，但即使我为车辆而消失，特斯拉也有足够的动力来解决自动驾驶问题。
Yes, there's a whole range of things we can do in the future beyond that. I'll be more reticent with respect to Optimus, if we have a super-sentient humanoid robot that can follow you indoors and that you can escape, we're talking terminator-level risk. And yes, I'd be uncomfortable with. If there's not some meaningful level of influence over how that is deployed. And if there's shareholders have an opportunity to ratify or reratify the sort of competition because I can't say that. That is a fact. They have an opportunity. And yes, we'll see. If the company generates a lot of positive cash flow, we could obviously buy back shares.
是的，除此之外，我们未来还可以做很多事情。对于擎天柱，我会更加沉默，如果我们有一个超级有知觉的人形机器人，它可以在室内跟随你，你可以逃脱，我们谈论的是终结者级别的风险。是的，我会不舒服。如果对如何部署它没有某种有意义的影响。如果有股东，就有机会批准或重新批准这种竞争，因为我不能这么说。这是事实。他们有机会。是的，我们拭目以待。如果公司产生大量正现金流，我们显然可以回购股票。
Alex Potter 亚历克斯·波特
All right. That's actually all very helpful context. Thank you. Maybe one final question and I'll pass it on. OpEx reductions, thank you for quantifying the impact there. I'd be interested also in potentially more qualitative discussion of what the implications are for these headcount reductions. What are the types of activities that you're presumably sacrificing as a result of parting ways with these folks? Thanks very much.
好吧。这实际上都是非常有用的背景。谢谢。也许是最后一个问题，我会把它传递出去。运营支出减少，感谢您量化那里的影响。我还有兴趣对这些裁员的影响进行更定性的讨论。由于与这些人分道扬镳，您可能牺牲了哪些类型的活动？非常感谢。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
So like we said, we've done these headcount reductions across the board. And as companies grow over time, there are certain redundancies. There's some duplication of efforts, which happens in certain areas. So you need to go back and look at where all these pockets are, get rid of it. So we're basically going through that exercise wherein we're like, hey, how do we set this company right for the next phase of growth. And the way to think about it is any tree which grows, it needs pruning. This is the pruning exercise which we went through. And at the end of it, we'll be much stronger and much more resilient to deal with the future because the future is really bright. Like I said in my opening remarks, we just have to get through this period and get there.
因此，正如我们所说，我们已经全面裁员。随着公司随着时间的推移而发展，存在某些冗余。在某些领域会有一些重复的工作。所以你需要回去看看所有这些口袋在哪里，摆脱它。因此，我们基本上正在经历这样的练习，我们想，嘿，我们如何让这家公司为下一阶段的增长做好准备。思考它的方式是任何生长的树，它都需要修剪。这是我们经历的修剪练习。最后，我们将变得更强大，更有弹性来应对未来，因为未来真的很光明。正如我在开场白中所说的那样，我们只需要度过这段时期并到达那里。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, we're not giving up anything that is significant that I'm aware of. So we've had a long period of prosperity from 2019 to now. And so if a company sort of organizationally is 5% wrong per year, that accumulates to 25%, 30% of inefficiency. We've made some corrections along the way. But it is time to reorganize the company for the next phase of growth and you really need to reorganize it, just like a human when we start off with one cell and kind of zygote, blastocyst and you start growing arms and legs and briefly, you have a tail. And so…
是的，我们不会放弃任何我所知道的重要事情。因此，从2019年到现在，我们经历了一段漫长的繁荣时期。因此，如果一家公司在组织上每年有5%的错误，那么就会累积到25%、30%的低效率。在此过程中，我们进行了一些更正。但现在是时候为下一阶段的增长重组公司了，你真的需要重组它，就像人类从一个细胞和受精卵、囊胚开始时，你开始长胳膊和腿，短暂地，你有尾巴。所以......
Alex Potter 亚历克斯·波特
But you shed the tail.
但是你甩掉了尾巴。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
You shed the tail, hopefully. And then you're baby, you basically, you have to be the organism – a company is kind of like creature growing. And if you don't reorganize it for different phases of growth, it will fail. You can't have the same organizational structure if you're 10 cells versus 100 cells versus 1 million cells versus 1 billion cells versus 1 trillion cells. Humans are around 35 trillion cells, doesn't feel like it feels like, like one person. But you're basically a walking cell colony of roughly 35 trillion depending on your body mass and about three times that number in bacteria. So anyway, you've got to reorganize the company for a new phase of growth or will fail to achieve that growth.
你甩掉了尾巴，希望如此。然后你是宝贝，基本上，你必须成为有机体——公司有点像生物在成长。如果你不针对不同的增长阶段重新组织它，它就会失败。如果你是 10 个细胞对 100 个细胞、100 万个细胞、10 亿个细胞对 1 万亿个细胞、1 万亿个细胞，你就不可能有相同的组织结构。人类大约有 35 万亿个细胞，感觉不像一个人。但你基本上是一个行走的细胞群，大约有35万亿，这取决于你的体重，而细菌的数量大约是这个数字的三倍。所以无论如何，你必须重组公司，进入一个新的增长阶段，否则将无法实现这种增长。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. Let's go to Mark Delaney from Goldman Sachs. Mark please go ahead and unmute.
谢谢。让我们来看看高盛（Goldman Sachs）的马克·德莱尼（Mark Delaney）。标记请继续取消静音。
Mark Delaney 马克·德莱尼
Yes. Good afternoon. Thanks very much for taking the question. The company previously characterized potential FSD licensing discussions in the early phase and some OEMs had not really been believing in it. Can you elaborate on how much the licensing business opportunity you mentioned today has progressed? And is there anything Tesla needs to achieve with the technology in terms of product milestones in order to be successful at reaching a licensing agreement in your view?
是的。下午好。非常感谢您回答这个问题。该公司此前曾在早期阶段对潜在的FSD许可讨论进行了描述，一些原始设备制造商并没有真正相信它。您能详细说明一下您今天提到的授权商机进展了多少吗？在您看来，特斯拉在产品里程碑方面需要通过该技术实现什么才能成功达成许可协议吗？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Well, I think we just need to – it just needs to be obvious that our approach is the right approach. And I think it is. I think we've now with 12.3, if you just have the car drive you around; it is obvious that our solution with a relatively low-cost inference computer and standard cameras can achieve self-driving. No LiDARs, no radars, no ultrasonic nothing.
好吧，我认为我们只需要——只需要很明显，我们的方法是正确的。我认为是的。我想我们现在已经有了 12.3，如果你只是让汽车开车带你四处走动;很明显，我们的解决方案采用成本相对较低的推理计算机和标准摄像头，可以实现自动驾驶。没有激光雷达，没有雷达，没有超声波，什么都没有。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
No heavy integration work for vehicle manufacturers.
对于汽车制造商来说，没有繁重的集成工作。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. So it really just be a case of having them use the same cameras and inference computer and licensing our software. But once it becomes obvious that if you don't have this in a car, nobody wants your car. It's a smart car. I still remember in, back when Nokia was king of the hill, Yes, crushing. And they certainly come out with a smartphone that was basically a break with limited functionality. And then the iPhone and Android, people still do not understand that all the phones are going to be that way. There's not going to be any flip [ph] phones. If there will be a niche product.
是的。因此，这实际上只是让他们使用相同的相机和推理计算机并许可我们的软件的情况。但是一旦很明显，如果你的车里没有这个，就没有人想要你的车。这是一辆智能汽车。我还记得，当诺基亚还是山丘之王的时候，是的，碾压。他们当然推出了一款智能手机，基本上是功能有限的休息时间。然后是iPhone和Android，人们仍然不明白所有的手机都会这样。不会有任何翻盖 [ph] 手机。如果会有利基产品。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Or home phones. 或家庭电话。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, no even exactly. When is the last time you saw a home phone.
是的，不完全是。您最后一次看到家庭电话是什么时候。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
No idea in a hotel, sometimes in hotels.
不知道在酒店里，有时在酒店里。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, the hotels have them. Yes. So the people don't understand all cars will need to be smart cars, or you will not sell or the car will not – nobody would buy it. Once that becomes obvious, I think licensing becomes not optional.
是的，酒店有。是的。所以人们不明白所有的汽车都需要是智能汽车，否则你不会卖掉，或者汽车不会——没有人会买它。一旦这一点变得明显，我认为许可就不再是可有可无的了。
Mark Delaney 马克·德莱尼
It becomes a method of survival?
它成为一种生存方式？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, absolutely, it is. License it or nobody will buy your car.
是的，绝对是。获得许可，否则没有人会买你的车。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
I mean one other thing which I'll add is in the conversations, which we've had with some of these OEMs, I just want to also point out that they take a lot of time in their product life cycle.
我的意思是，我要补充的另一件事是在我们与其中一些原始设备制造商的对话中，我只想指出，他们在产品生命周期中花费了大量时间。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
They're talking about years before they will put it in their product. We might have a licensing deal earlier than that, but it takes a while. So this is where the big difference between us and them is, right?
他们正在谈论几年之后才会将其放入他们的产品中。我们可能比这更早达成许可协议，但这需要一段时间。这就是我们和他们之间最大的区别所在，对吧？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, I mean, really a deal signed now would result in it being in a car probably three years.
是的，我的意思是，现在签署的协议将导致它可能在三年内出现在汽车中。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
That would be early.
那还为时过早。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. That's like lightening basically.
是的。这基本上就像闪电一样。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
That's in eager [ph] OEM.
那是在急切的 [ph] OEM 中。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. So I wouldn't be surprise if we do sign a deal. I think we have a good chance we do sign a deal this year, maybe more than one. But yes, it would be probably three years before it's integrated with a car. Even though all you need is cameras and our inference computer. So just talking about a massive design change.
是的。因此，如果我们真的签署了协议，我不会感到惊讶。我认为我们今年很有可能签署一项协议，也许不止一项。但是，是的，它可能还需要三年时间才能与汽车集成。即使您只需要相机和我们的推理计算机。所以只是谈论一个巨大的设计变化。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. And again, just to clarify, it's not the work which we have to do. It's the work which they have to do, which will take the time.
是的。再说一遍，澄清一下，这不是我们必须做的工作。这是他们必须做的工作，这需要时间。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Mark, is it helpful?
马克，有帮助吗？
Mark Delaney 马克·德莱尼
Yes, very helpful. Thank you. My follow-up was to better understand Tesla's approach to pricing going forward. Previously, the company had said that the price reductions were driving incremental demand with how affordable the cars have become, especially for vehicles that have access to IRA credits and some of the leasing offers that Tesla has in place. Do you still see meaningful incremental price reductions as making sense from here for the existing products? And can the company meaningfully lower prices from here and also stay free cash flow positive on an annual basis with the current product set? Thanks.
是的，非常有帮助。谢谢。我的后续工作是为了更好地了解特斯拉未来的定价方法。此前，该公司曾表示，随着汽车价格的降低，降价正在推动需求增长，特别是对于可以获得IRA抵免和特斯拉提供的一些租赁优惠的车辆。您仍然认为从现在开始对现有产品进行有意义的增量降价是否有意义？该公司能否从现在开始有意义地降低价格，并在当前产品系列中保持每年的自由现金流为正？谢谢。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. I think we can be free cash flow positive meaningfully.
是的。我认为我们可以有意义地实现自由现金流为正。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
I think Vaibhav said it in his opening remarks, like our cost down efforts, we basically were offsetting the price cut like we’re trying to give it back to the customers.
我认为Vaibhav在他的开场白中说过，就像我们的成本降低努力一样，我们基本上是在抵消降价，就像我们试图将其回馈给客户一样。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. I mean the end of the day, like for any given company, if you sell a great product at a great price – if you have a great product at a great price, the sales will be excellent. That’s true of any area. So over time, we do need to keep making sure that we’re – that it’s a great product at a great price. And moreover, that price is accessible to people.
是的。我的意思是，归根结底，就像任何一家公司一样，如果你以优惠的价格销售一款出色的产品——如果您以优惠的价格销售一款出色的产品，那么销售就会非常好。任何领域都是如此。因此，随着时间的流逝，我们确实需要继续确保我们是 - 这是一个价格合理的优质产品。而且，这个价格是人们可以接受的。
So it’s not – you have to solve both the value for money and the fundamental affordability question. The fundamental affordability question is sometimes overlooked. If somebody is earning several hundred thousand dollars a year, they don’t think of a car from a fundamental affordability standpoint. But from vast majority of people are living paycheck to paycheck. So it actually makes a difference if the cost per month for lease refinancing is $10 one way or the other. So it is important to keep improving the affordability and to keep making the price.
所以事实并非如此——你必须同时解决物有所值和基本的负担能力问题。基本的负担能力问题有时会被忽视。如果有人每年赚几十万美元，他们不会从基本的负担能力的角度考虑汽车。但绝大多数人都靠薪水生活。因此，如果租赁再融资的每月成本为10美元，那么实际上会有所不同。因此，重要的是要不断提高可负担性并不断制定价格。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
More accessible. 更易于访问。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, exactly. Make the price more accessible, the value for money better, and to keep improving that over time.
是的，没错。使价格更容易获得，物有所值，并随着时间的推移不断改进。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
But also make kick as cost that people want to buy.
但也要把踢作为人们想要购买的成本。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, it’s going to be a great product and at a great price. And the standards for what constitutes great product at a great price keep increasing. So there’s like – you can’t just be static. You have to keep making the car better, improving the price, but improving the cost of production, and that’s what we’re doing.
是的，这将是一个很棒的产品，而且价格实惠。以优惠的价格构成优质产品的标准不断提高。所以就像——你不能只是一成不变。你必须不断让汽车变得更好，提高价格，但要提高生产成本，这就是我们正在做的事情。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. And in fact, like I said in my opening remarks also, like the revised – the updated Model 3 is a fantastic car. I don’t think people fully even understand that lot of engineering effort which has gone and Lars and team have actually put out videos explaining how much the car is different. I mean it looks and feels different. Not only it looks and feels different. We’ve added so much value to it, but you can lease it for like as low as $299 a month.
是的。事实上，就像我在开场白中所说的那样，就像修改后的 Model 3 一样，是一辆很棒的车。我不认为人们甚至完全理解已经付出的大量工程努力，Lars和团队实际上已经发布了视频来解释这辆车的不同之处。我的意思是它的外观和感觉不同。它不仅外观和感觉不同。我们为它增加了很多价值，但您可以以每月低至 299 美元的价格租用它。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Without gas. 没有气体。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. 是的。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
All right. The next question comes from George from Canaccord. George, please go ahead and unmute.
好吧。下一个问题来自Canaccord的George。乔治，请继续取消静音。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析师
Hi, thank you for taking my question. First, could you please help us understand some of the timing of launching FSD in additional geographies, including maybe clarifying your recent comment about China? Thank you.
嗨，谢谢你回答我的问题。首先，您能否帮助我们了解在其他地区推出FSD的一些时机，包括澄清您最近对中国的评论？谢谢。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
I mean like new markets, yes, we are – there are a bunch of markets where we don’t currently sell cars that we should be selling cars in. We’ll see some acceleration of that.
我的意思是，就像新市场一样，是的，我们是——有很多市场我们目前不销售我们应该销售汽车的汽车。我们将看到一些加速。
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析师
And FSD new markets?
FSD的新市场呢？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. So think about the end-to-end neural net-based autonomy is that just like a human, it actually works pretty well without modification in almost any market. So we plan on – with the approval of the regulators, releasing it as a supervised autonomy system in any market that – where we can get regulatory approval for that, which we think includes China. So yes, it’s – just like a human, you can go rent a car in a foreign country and you can drive pretty well. Obviously, if you live in that country, you’ll drive better. And so we’ll make the car drive better in these other countries with country-specific training. But it can drive quite well almost everywhere.
是的。因此，想想基于神经网络的端到端自主性，就像人类一样，它实际上在几乎任何市场上都运行良好，无需修改。因此，我们计划在监管机构的批准下，将其作为受监督的自治系统在任何市场发布，我们可以获得监管部门的批准，我们认为包括中国。所以是的，就像人类一样，你可以在国外租一辆车，你可以开得很好。显然，如果你住在那个国家，你会开得更好。因此，我们将通过针对特定国家的培训，使汽车在这些其他国家/地区行驶得更好。但它几乎可以在任何地方很好地行驶。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
The basics of driving are basically same everywhere like car is a car, the traffic lights, road is the road. Yes.
驾驶的基本原理在任何地方都基本相同，就像汽车是汽车，红绿灯，道路是道路。是的。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
It understands that it shouldn’t hit things, no matter what the road rules are.
它明白，无论道路规则是什么，它都不应该撞到东西。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Exactly. There are some road rules that you need to follow. And in China, you shouldn’t cross over a solid line to do a lane change. In U.S. it’s a recommendation I think. In China, you get fined heavily if you do that. We have to do some more actions, but it’s mostly smaller reduction. It’s not like the entire change or type or something.
完全。您需要遵守一些道路规则。在中国，你不应该越过一条实线来改变车道。在美国，我认为这是一个建议。在中国，如果你这样做，你会被处以巨额罚款。我们必须采取更多的行动，但主要是较小的减少。它不像整个更改或类型或其他东西。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Hey, George, do you have a follow-up?
嘿，乔治，你有后续吗？
Unidentified Analyst 身份不明的分析师
Yes. So my follow-up has to do with the first quarter deliveries and I’m curious as to whether or not you feel that supply constraints that you mentioned throughout the release impacted the results and maybe can you help us quantify that? And is that why you have some confidence in unit growth in 2024?
是的。因此，我的后续工作与第一季度的交付有关，我很好奇您是否认为您在整个发布过程中提到的供应限制影响了结果，也许您能帮助我们量化这一点吗？这就是为什么您对 2024 年的单位增长有信心的原因吗？
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. I think we did cover this a little bit in the opening remarks to you. Q1 had a lot of different things which are happening. Seasonality was a big one, continued pressure from the macroeconomic environment. We had attacks at our factory. We had Red Sea attacks, we are ramping Model 3, we’re ramping Cybertruck. All these things are happening. I mean, it almost feels like a culmination of all those activities in a constrained period. And that gives us that confidence that, hey, we don’t expect these things to recur.
是的。我想我们在开场白中确实谈到了这一点。第一季度有很多不同的事情正在发生。季节性是一个很大的因素，来自宏观经济环境的持续压力。我们的工厂遭到了袭击。我们遭遇了红海袭击，我们正在加速Model 3，我们正在加速Cybertruck。所有这些事情都在发生。我的意思是，这几乎感觉就像是所有这些活动在一个有限的时期内达到的高潮。这给了我们信心，嘿，我们不希望这些事情再次发生。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. We think Q2 will be a lot better.
是的。我们认为第二季度会好很多。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. 是的。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
It’s just one thing after another. Our Cybertrucks are crazy. Thank you.
这只是一件接一件的事情。我们的 Cybertrucks 太疯狂了。谢谢。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, exactly. It’s just – if you’ve got cars that are sitting on ships, they obviously cannot delivered to people. And if you’ve got the excess demand for Model 3 and Model Y in one market, but you don’t have it there. It’s quite a – it’s extremely complex logistics situation. So I’d say also the – we did overcomplicate the sales process, which we’ve just in the past week or so have greatly simplified. So it became far too complex to buy a Tesla, whereas it should just be you can buy the car in under a minute. So we’re getting back to that you can buy a Tesla in under an minute interface from what was quite complex.
是的，没错。只是——如果你有坐在船上的汽车，它们显然无法交付给人们。如果你在一个市场对Model 3和Model Y有过剩的需求，但你在那里没有。这是一个相当复杂的物流情况。所以我还要说的是——我们确实使销售过程过于复杂，我们在过去一周左右的时间里大大简化了销售过程。因此，购买特斯拉变得太复杂了，而它应该只是在一分钟内购买汽车。因此，我们又回到了您可以在一分钟的界面内从相当复杂的界面中购买特斯拉。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay, thank you. Let’s go to Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer. Colin, go ahead and unmute, please.
好的，谢谢。让我们去奥本海默的科林·鲁施。科林，请继续取消静音。
Colin Rusch 科林·鲁施
Thanks so much, guys. Given the pursuit of Tesla really as a leader in AI for the physical world, in your comments around distributed inference, can you talk about what that approach is unlocking beyond what’s happening in the vehicle right now?
非常感谢，伙计们。鉴于特斯拉确实追求成为物理世界人工智能的领导者，在你对分布式推理的评论中，你能谈谈这种方法在车辆现在发生的事情之外解锁了什么吗？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Do you want to say something?
你想说点什么吗？
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. Like Elon mentioned like the car even when it's a full robotaxi it's probably going to be used 150 hours a week.
是的。就像埃隆提到的，就像汽车一样，即使它是一辆完整的自动驾驶出租车，它也可能每周使用150个小时。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
That's my guess like a third of the hours of the week.
这是我的猜测，大约是一周中三分之一的时间。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. It could be more or less, but then there's certainly going to be some hours left for charging and cleaning and maintenance in that world, you can do a lot of other workloads, even right now we are seeing, for example, these LLM companies have these like batch workloads where they send a bunch of documents and those run through pretty large neural networks and take a lot of compute to chunk through those workloads.
是的。它可能或多或少，但在那个世界中，肯定会剩下几个小时用于充电、清洁和维护，你可以做很多其他工作负载，即使现在我们看到，例如，这些LLM公司有这些类似批处理的工作负载，他们发送一堆文档，这些文档通过相当大的神经网络运行，需要大量的计算来分块这些工作负载。
And now that we have already paid for this compute in these cars, it might be wise to use them and not let them be idle, be like buying a lot of expensive machinery and leaving to them idle. Like we don't want that, we want to use the computer as much as possible and close to like basically 100% of the time to make it a use of it.
现在我们已经为这些汽车的计算付费了，明智的做法是使用它们而不是让它们闲置，就像购买大量昂贵的机器并让它们闲置一样。就像我们不希望那样，我们希望尽可能多地使用计算机，并且基本上接近 100% 的时间使用它。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
That’s right. I think it's analogous to Amazon Web Services, where people didn't expect that AWS would be the most valuable part of Amazon when it started out as a bookstore. So that was on nobody's radar. But they found that they had excess compute because the compute needs would spike to extreme levels for brief periods of the year and then they had idle compute for the rest of the year. So then what should they do to pull that excess compute for the rest of the year?
没错。我认为这类似于亚马逊网络服务，当亚马逊最初是一家书店时，人们并没有想到AWS会成为亚马逊最有价值的部分。所以没有人注意到这一点。但是他们发现他们有过剩的计算，因为计算需求会在一年中的短暂时间内飙升到极端水平，然后在一年中的剩余时间里有闲置的计算。那么，他们应该怎么做才能在今年剩下的时间里拉动多余的计算呢？
That's kind of... 这有点......
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Monetize it 货币化
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, monetize it. So, it seems like kind of a no-brainer to say, okay, if we've got millions and then tens of millions of vehicles out there where the computers are idle most of the time that we might well have them do something useful.
是的，将其货币化。所以，说，好吧，如果我们有数百万辆甚至数千万辆汽车，计算机大部分时间都处于闲置状态，我们很可能会让它们做一些有用的事情。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Exactly. 完全。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
And then, I mean, if you get like to the 100 million vehicle level, which I think we will, at some point, get to, then – and you've got a kilowatt of useable compute and maybe your own hardware 6 or 7 by that time. Then you really – I think you could have on the order of 100 gigawatts of useful compute, which might be more than anyone more than any company, probably more than a company.
然后，我的意思是，如果你达到 1 亿辆汽车的水平，我认为我们会在某个时候达到这个水平——到那时你已经拥有了一千瓦的可用计算，也许你自己的硬件有 6 或 7 个。然后你真的——我认为你可以拥有 100 吉瓦的有用计算能力，这可能比任何人都多，比任何公司都多，可能比一家公司还要多。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes, probably because it takes a lot of intelligence to drive the car anyway. And when it's not driving the car, you just put this intelligence to other uses, solving scientific problems or answer in terms of someone else.
是的，可能是因为无论如何驾驶汽车都需要很多智慧。当它不驾驶汽车时，你只是把这种智能用于其他用途，解决科学问题或用别人的方式回答。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
It's like a human, ideally. We've already learned about deploying workloads to these nodes
理想情况下，它就像一个人。我们已经了解了如何将工作负载部署到这些节点
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. And unlike laptops and our cell phones, it is totally under Tesla's control. So it's easier to distribute the workload across different nodes as opposed to asking users for permission on their own cell phones to be very tedious.
是的。与笔记本电脑和手机不同，它完全在特斯拉的控制之下。因此，将工作负载分布在不同的节点上更容易，而不是在自己的手机上请求用户的许可，这非常乏味。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Well, you're just draining the battery on the phone.
好吧，你只是在耗尽手机的电池电量。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes, exactly. The battery is also...
是的，没错。电池也是...
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
So like technically, I suppose like Apple would have the most amount of distributed compute, but you can't use it because you can't get the – you can't just run the phone at full power and drain the battery.
所以从技术上讲，我想苹果会拥有最多的分布式计算，但你不能使用它，因为你无法获得——你不能只是以全功率运行手机并耗尽电池。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. 是的。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
So, whereas for the car, even if you're a kilowatt level inference computer, which is crazy power compared to a phone. If you've got 50 or 60 kilowatt hour pack, it's still not a big deal to run if you are plugged it – whether you plugged it or not – you could be plugged in or not like you could run for 10 hours and use 10-kilowatt hours of your kilowatt of compute power.
所以，对于汽车来说，即使你是一台千瓦级的推理计算机，与手机相比，这已经是疯狂的功率了。如果你有 50 或 60 千瓦时的电池组，如果你插上电源，运行它仍然没什么大不了的——无论你是否插上它——你都可以插上或不插上，就像你可以运行 10 小时并使用 10 千瓦时的千瓦计算能力一样。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Yes. We got built in like liquid cold thermal management.
是的。我们内置了液体冷热管理。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, exactly. 是的，没错。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Exactly for data centers, it's already there in the car.
确切地说，对于数据中心来说，它已经存在于汽车中。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Exactly. Yes. Its distributed power generation – distributed access to power and distributed cooling, that was already paid for.
完全。是的。它的分布式发电——分布式接入电力和分布式冷却，这已经是付费的。
Ashok Elluswamy 阿肖克·埃卢斯瓦米
Yes. I mean that distributed power and cooling, people underestimate that costs a lot of money.
是的。我的意思是分布式电源和冷却，人们低估了这要花很多钱。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. And the CapEx is shared by the entire world sort of everyone wants a small chunk, and they get a small profit out of it, maybe.
是的。资本支出由全世界共享，每个人都想要一小块，也许他们会从中获得少量利润。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Colin Rusch 科林·鲁施
Thanks so much guys. And just my follow-up is a little bit more mundane. Looking at the 4680 ramp, can you talk about how close you were to target yields and when you might start to accelerate incremental capacity expansions on that technology?
非常感谢大家。只是我的后续工作有点平凡。看看 4680 的产能，您能谈谈您离目标产量有多近，以及何时可以开始加速该技术的增量产能扩张吗？
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
We're making good progress on that. But I don't think it's super important for at least in the near term. As Lars said, we think it will be exceed the competitiveness of suppliers by the end of this year and then we'll continue to improve.
我们在这方面取得了良好的进展。但我认为这至少在短期内并不重要。正如Lars所说，我们认为到今年年底，它将超过供应商的竞争力，然后我们将继续改进。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Yes. I mean, I think it's important to note also that like the ramp right now is relevant to the Cybertruck ramp.
是的。我的意思是，我认为重要的是要注意，就像现在的坡道与Cybertruck坡道有关。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. 是的。
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
And so like we're not going to just randomly build 4680s unless we have a place to put them and so we're going to make sure we're prudent about that. But we also have a lot of investments with all our cell suppliers and vendors. They're great partners, and they've done great development work with us and a lot of the advancements in technologies and chemistry we found 4680, they're also putting into their cells.
因此，除非我们有一个放置它们的地方，否则我们不会随意构建 4680，因此我们将确保我们对此保持谨慎。但我们也与所有电池供应商和供应商进行了大量投资。他们是很好的合作伙伴，他们与我们一起做了很好的开发工作，我们发现了4680的许多技术和化学进步，他们也正在投入他们的细胞。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. I mean a big part of the 4680, Tesla doing internal cells was a hedge against what would happen with our suppliers because for a while they are it was very difficult because every big carmaker put in massive battery orders, and so the price per kilowatt hour of lithium-ion batteries went to crazy numbers, crazy levels.
是的。我的意思是，在4680的很大一部分中，特斯拉做内部电池是为了对冲我们的供应商会发生什么，因为在一段时间内，他们非常困难，因为每个大型汽车制造商都下了大量的电池订单，所以每千瓦时锂离子电池的价格达到了疯狂的数字，疯狂的水平。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Bonkers. 疯狂。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, just bonkers. So like, okay, we've got to have some hedge here to deal with cost per kilowatt hours of numbers that were double what we anticipated. If we have an internal cell production, then we have that hedge against demand shocks, we have too much demand. That's really the way to think about it. It's not like we want to take on a whole bunch of problems just for the hell of it. We did the cell program in order to address the crazy increase in cost per kilowatt hour from our suppliers due to gigantic orders placed by every carmaker on earth.
是的，只是疯了。所以，好吧，我们必须在这里进行一些对冲，以应对每千瓦时的成本，这些数字是我们预期的两倍。如果我们有内部电池生产，那么我们就有了对冲需求冲击的对冲，我们的需求太多了。这才是真正的思考方式。这并不是说我们想解决一大堆问题只是为了它。我们开展电池计划是为了解决由于地球上每家汽车制造商下达的巨额订单而导致供应商每千瓦时成本的疯狂增长。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you. And the last question comes from Ben Kallo from Baird. Ben, go ahead and unmute. Ben, you're still muted.
好。谢谢。最后一个问题来自贝尔德的本·卡洛。Ben，继续取消静音。本，你还是静音。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Well, I want to say again, we'd just like to strongly recommend that anyone who is, I guess, thinking about the Tesla stock should really drive FSD 12.3. It really – you can't – it's impossible to understand the company if you do not do this.
好吧，我想再说一遍，我们强烈建议任何正在考虑特斯拉股票的人都应该真正推动 FSD 12.3。真的——你不能——如果你不这样做，就不可能理解公司。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
All right. So since Ben is not unmuting. Let's try Shreyas Patil from Wolfe Research. Final question.
好吧。因此，由于 Ben 没有取消静音。让我们试试 Wolfe Research 的 Shreyas Patil。最后一个问题。
Shreyas Patil 什雷亚斯·帕蒂尔
Thanks so much. Just Elon, during the Investor Day last year, you mentioned that auto COGS per unit for the next-gen vehicle would decline by 50% versus the current three and Y. I think that was implying something around $20,000 of COGS. About one-third of that was coming from the on-box manufacturing process. But I'm curious if you see an opportunity that the – some of the other drivers around powertrain cost reduction or material cost savings, would those be largely transferable to some of the new products that you're now talking about introducing?
非常感谢。Elon，在去年的投资者日上，您提到下一代汽车的每辆汽车 COGS 将比目前的 3 年和 Y 年下降 50%。我认为这意味着大约 20,000 美元的 COGS。其中大约三分之一来自盒装制造过程。但我很好奇，如果你看到一个机会，即围绕动力总成成本降低或材料成本节约的其他一些驱动因素，这些是否会在很大程度上转移到你现在正在谈论的一些新产品中？
Lars Moravy 拉尔斯·莫拉维
Yes, sure. I mean, in short, yes, I mean, like the on-box manufacturing method is certainly great and revolutionary, but with it comes some risks because new production lines and not, but all the subsystems we developed, whether it was powertrains, drive units, battery improvements in manufacturing and automation, thermal systems, seating, integration of interior components and reduction of LV controllers, all that's transferable, and that's what we're doing, trying to get it in their products as fast as possible. And so yes, that engineering work, we're not trying to just throw it away and put a cars and we're going to take it and utilize it and utilize it to the best advantage of the cars we make and the future cars make.
当然。我的意思是，简而言之，是的，我的意思是，就像盒子上的制造方法当然是伟大的和革命性的，但随之而来的是一些风险，因为新的生产线和不是，但我们开发的所有子系统，无论是动力总成、驱动单元、制造和自动化中的电池改进、热系统、座椅、内部组件的集成和低压控制器的减少， 所有这些都是可以转移的，这就是我们正在做的事情，试图尽快将其纳入他们的产品中。所以，是的，工程工作，我们不是想把它扔掉，然后放一辆汽车，我们要拿走它，利用它，利用它来充分利用我们制造的汽车和未来的汽车。
Shreyas Patil 什雷亚斯·帕蒂尔
Okay. Great. And then just on that topic of 4680 cells, I know you mentioned it, you really thought of it more as like a hedge against rising battery costs from other OEMs. But it seems even today, it seems like you would have a cost advantage against some of those other automakers. And I'm wondering, given the rationalizing of your vehicle manufacturing plans that you're talking about now, if there's an opportunity to maybe convert the 4680 cells and maybe sell those to other automakers and really generate an additional revenue stream. I'm just curious if you have any thoughts about that.
好。伟大。然后就 4680 电池的话题，我知道你提到了它，你真的认为它更像是对冲其他 OEM 电池成本上涨的对冲。但似乎即使在今天，与其他一些汽车制造商相比，您似乎也具有成本优势。我想知道，鉴于你现在谈论的汽车制造计划的合理化，是否有机会转换4680电池，并可能将其出售给其他汽车制造商，并真正产生额外的收入来源。我只是好奇你是否对此有任何想法。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Great. What seems to be happening is that the I'm missing something, the orders for batteries from other automakers have declined dramatically. So we're seeing much more competitive prices for sales from our suppliers, dramatically more competitive than in the past. It is clear that a lot of our suppliers have excess capacity.
伟大。似乎正在发生的事情是，我错过了一些东西，其他汽车制造商的电池订单急剧下降。因此，我们看到供应商的销售价格更具竞争力，比过去更具竞争力。很明显，我们的许多供应商都存在产能过剩的问题。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Yes. In addition to what Elon, this is kind of in addition to what Elon said, about 4680, what 4680 did for us from a supply chain perspective was help us understand the supply chain that's upstream of our cell suppliers. So a lot of the deals that we had struck for 4680, we can also supply those materials to our partners, help reducing the overall cost back to Tesla. So we're basically inserting ourselves in the upstream supply chain by doing that. So that's also been beneficial in reducing the overall pricing in addition to the excess capacity that these suppliers have.
是的。除了 Elon 所说的之外，关于 4680，从供应链的角度来看，4680 为我们所做的是帮助我们了解我们电池供应商上游的供应链。因此，我们为4680达成的许多交易，我们也可以将这些材料提供给我们的合作伙伴，帮助降低特斯拉的总体成本。因此，我们基本上是通过这样做将自己插入到上游供应链中。因此，除了这些供应商的过剩产能外，这也有利于降低整体价格。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. No, I mean this is going to wax and wane, obviously. So there's going to be a boom and bust in battery cell production where production exceeds supply and then supply exceeds production and back and forth kind of like, I don't know, DRAM or something. But Yes. So it's like what is true today will not be true in the future, there's going to be somewhat of a boom and bust cycle here. And then there are additional complications with government incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act, the IRA, Joe [ph] has found like a funny name.
是的。不，我的意思是这显然会起伏不定。因此，电池生产将出现繁荣和萧条，产量超过供应，然后供应超过生产，来回走动，我不知道，DRAM或其他东西。但是是的。所以这就像今天是真的，将来不会是真的，这里会有一个繁荣和萧条的周期。此外，政府激励措施还存在其他复杂问题，例如《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）、《通胀削减法案》（IRA），乔·约瑟夫（Joe [ph]）发现这是一个有趣的名字。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Comical name. 滑稽的名字。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, it is like Irish Republican Army, The Internet Research Agency from Russia.
是的，它就像爱尔兰共和军，来自俄罗斯的互联网研究机构。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Independent retirement account.
独立的退休账户。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes, exactly. Roth IRA. It's like Spider-Man situation, which IRA wins. So but it is complicate the incentive structure. So that is there's the stronger demand for cells that are produced in the U.S. than outside the U.S. But then how long is that the IRA last, I don't know.
是的，没错。罗斯爱尔兰共和军。这就像蜘蛛侠的情况，爱尔兰共和军赢了。因此，它使激励结构复杂化。也就是说，对美国生产的电池的需求比美国以外的电池更强。但是，爱尔兰共和军能持续多久，我不知道。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Which is why it's important that we have both internet [ph] cells and vendor cells that hedge against all of this.
这就是为什么我们必须同时拥有互联网 [ph] 单元和供应商单元来对冲所有这些。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Okay. Thank you very much. That's all the time we have today. But at the same time, I would like to make a short announcement. And I wanted to let the investment community know that about a month ago, I met up with Elon and Vaibhav and announced that I'll be moving on from the world of Investor Relations. I'll be hanging around for another couple of months or so. So feel free to reach out at any time. But after the seven year sprint, I'm going to be taking a break and spending some good quality time with my family.
好。谢谢。这就是我们今天所拥有的所有时间。但与此同时，我想做一个简短的宣布。我想让投资界知道，大约一个月前，我与 Elon 和 Vaibhav 会面，并宣布我将离开投资者关系领域。我会再呆几个月左右。因此，请随时联系我们。但是在七年的冲刺之后，我将休息一下，与家人共度美好时光。
And I wanted to say that these seven years have been the greatest privilege of my professional life. I'll never forget the memories from I started literally at the beginning of production hell and just watching the company from the inside to see what it's become today. And especially super thankful to the people in this room and dozens of people outside of this room that I've worked for over the years. I think the team's strength and teamwork at Tesla is unlike anything else I've seen in my career.
我想说，这七年是我职业生涯中最大的荣幸。我永远不会忘记我从生产地狱开始的回忆，只是从内部观察公司，看看它今天变成了什么。特别感谢这个房间里的人，以及这个房间外的几十个人，这些年来我为之工作。我认为特斯拉团队的实力和团队合作与我职业生涯中见过的任何事情都不一样。
Elon, thank you very much for this opportunity that I got back in 2017. Thank you for seeking investor feedback and regularly and debating it with me.
埃隆，非常感谢你在 2017 年给我这个机会。感谢您寻求投资者的反馈，并定期与我进行辩论。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
Yes. Well, I mean the reason I reached out to you was because I thought your analysis of Tesla was the best that I had seen.
是的。嗯，我的意思是，我之所以联系你，是因为我认为你对特斯拉的分析是我见过的最好的。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you. 谢谢。
Elon Musk 埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）
So, thank you for helping Tesla to get to where it is today over seven years. It's been a pleasure working with you.
所以，感谢你们在七年多的时间里帮助特斯拉走到今天。很高兴与您合作。
Martin Viecha 马丁·维查（Martin Viecha）
Thank you so much. And yes, thank you for all the thousands of shareholders that we've met over the years and walked around factories and loved all the interactions, even the tough ones. And yes, looking forward to the call in the next three months, but I'll be on the other side, listening in. Thank you very much.
非常感谢。是的，感谢我们多年来遇到的成千上万的股东，他们在工厂里走来走去，喜欢所有的互动，即使是艰难的互动。是的，期待未来三个月的电话会议，但我会在另一边，倾听。谢谢。
Vaibhav Taneja 瓦伊巴夫·塔内贾（Vaibhav Taneja）
Thanks. 谢谢。