Inflation, after all, depends on the speed of the subsequent decline in the core.

Oil prices have skyrocketed, and the seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States has already hit the sky, reaching 9%. Even if we exclude food and energy, the core CPI has risen to 5.9% year-on-year, only slightly lower than last month's 6%.

From a month-on-month perspective, except for a slight sign of stability in the inflation of fifteen commodities, service categories are generally experiencing inflation, including healthcare and other services.

However, oil prices fell in July, and services related to transportation and air tickets, which are related to oil prices, are expected to return slightly. The Federal Reserve should not run away from raising interest rates by 75 basis points next time.

Considering that oil prices have already peaked and fallen in July, except for bringing down fuel-related CPI, services that use fuel, such as transportation, should also have hope of falling. The CPI in June should have peaked, and we need to see the speed of the decline in the future.

At present, the main factors directly affecting the Fed's interest rate hike are roughly as follows:

(1) Actual CPI;

(2) Market/consumer CPI expectations;

(3) Supply and demand in the job market;

(4) Corporate investment activity.

Among them, the first is a lagging indicator, and the third and fourth are leading indicators. Moreover, the third and fourth are the ones that hit corporate demand. In addition to looking at CPI, we also need to look at corporate capex, employment, and other factors to judge whether economic activity is slowing down.