Is the Real Estate Recovery Short-lived? input: ====== 海豚君说，这次的财报情况并不乐观，公司的业绩出现了下滑，需要采取措施来提高盈利能力。 ====== output: According to Dolphin Analyst, the financial report is not optimistic this time, and the company's performance has declined. Measures need to be taken to improve profitability.

In recent days, the frequent suspension of construction and the suspension of loans by owners around the world have once again pushed the real estate industry, which is "ignored" in the capital market, to the focus of the market's attention. So how did the real estate data for June, which was announced today, perform?

First of all, from the perspective of sales, the rebound of new house transactions since the second half of June after the epidemic was lifted was indeed strong, narrowing the decline in overall sales in June to 23%. Although the decline is still not low, compared with the decline of more than 40% in April and May, there has been a significant improvement. Looking at the average transaction price of new houses, the decline in June has also significantly narrowed to 2%, which is the lowest decline in 22 years. This indicates that the market's enthusiasm for transactions in June did show signs of recovery.

However, due to the ugly data in April and May, the overall sales of new houses in the second quarter still fell by 36% year-on-year, hitting a new low. However, the second quarter is likely to be the worst quarter.

Due to the recovery in sales, the capital sources of real estate companies improved significantly in June, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 20%, which was also the month with the most funds raised in a single month in 2022. In terms of segmentation, there have been significant increases in loans obtained from banks and pre-sale payments and mortgage payments obtained from pre-sales.

Therefore, overall, June has already shown a glimmer of hope for the real estate industry, and the government's stimulus policies have begun to take effect.

However, perhaps due to the excessive rebound in sales in the latter half of June and overdrawn demand, real estate sales data in the first week of July fell more than 40% year-on-year. The recent news of owners suspending loans may severely undermine the confidence of homebuyers, leading to another tightening of new home sales and real estate company capital sources and a vicious shrinkage.

In addition, from the year-on-year decline of more than 40% in land transaction volume and new construction area in June, it can be seen that real estate companies are still adopting a "self-protection" strategy, without confidence and ability to invest.

Therefore, the pressure on the real estate market in the second half of the year is still significant, and there may be significant downward pressure on consumption related to the real estate industry chain and the entire macro economy.

And the current game point should still be how the government will resolve the loan suspension crisis, and whether it will continue to increase policy stimulus in the face of the possibility of further decline in the real estate market.

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